On January 1, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Research, highlighted that the growing community expectations for a spot Solana (SOL) ETF were still undervalued. On December 31, users of the digital asset prediction platform Polymarket assigned a 77% probability to Solana’s ETF approval by 2025, following a surge in institutional interest and easing regulatory concerns.
Reacting to this on X (formerly Twitter), Sigel argued that this probability was “underpriced,” suggesting the chances of approval were higher than the market indicated. This sentiment is shared by several crypto industry leaders, particularly after Donald Trump’s victory in the November elections and his subsequent nominations. Since Sigel’s comments, the odds have risen to 85%, signaling growing confidence in a successful outcome.
“Polymarket bettors are now assigning an 85% chance that the SEC will approve a spot Solana ETF by the end of 2025, reflecting a 35% increase in optimism over the past few days. What’s fueling this bullish outlook? Rising expectations that $SOL could follow in the footsteps of $BTC and $ETH, breaking into mainstream markets through ETFs,” Blockmandev noted on X.
In June 2024, VanEck submitted its application for a spot Solana ETF, although the SEC initially questioned whether the asset should be classified as a security rather than a commodity. Despite this, many in the community remain hopeful that regulatory conditions will improve in the coming year.
